H-1B Lottery Selection Odds by Year

Priority dates, work visas, and labor market data

H-1B Lottery Selection Odds by Year

USCIS's published registration statistics, cap season by cap season.

USCIS selected 120,141 of 343,981 eligible registrations for the FY2026 H-1B cap — a 34.9% selection rate. The rate has ranged from 24.8% to 46.2% across the seasons below, driven almost entirely by how big the registration pool was that year.

Cap FY Eligible registrations Selected Selection rate Selections per cap slot Selected by
FY2021 269,424 124,415 46.2% 1.46× Per registration
FY2022 301,447 131,924 43.8% 1.55× Per registration
FY2023 474,421 127,600 26.9% 1.5× Per registration
FY2024 758,994 188,400 24.8% 2.22× Per registration
FY2025 470,342 135,137 28.7% 1.59× Per beneficiary
FY2026 343,981 120,141 34.9% 1.41× Per beneficiary

Selection rate is selections divided by eligible registrations. "Selections per cap slot" is the same selections against the 85,000 statutory cap: USCIS deliberately selects more than the cap because not every selected registrant files and not every petition is approved, and a season that needed a larger multiple is one where more selections were required to fill the same slots. Selections are counted across all rounds a season ran.

What each season's numbers carry

FY2021

Total across multiple selection rounds — USCIS selected again when too few selectees filed, so this rate overstates a single round's odds.

FY2022

Total across multiple selection rounds — USCIS selected again when too few selectees filed, so this rate overstates a single round's odds.

FY2024

The largest registration pool on record. Over half of these registrations were for beneficiaries entered by more than one employer.

FY2025

First season under the beneficiary-centric rule: one entry per person however many employers register them. 127,624 distinct beneficiaries were selected, a 28.9% per-beneficiary rate.

FY2026

The registration fee rose from $10 to $215 for this season, alongside a cooler hiring market — both cut registrations independently of the counting rule.

Selection is not a visa

Every rate above is a rate of selection. A selected registration earns the right to file the I-129 petition inside the filing window; the petition still has to be filed and approved, and a real share are denied. The FY2021 and FY2022 rates are also inflated by the extra selection rounds those seasons ran after too few selectees filed, so they overstate what a single draw was worth.

What the single yearly rate hides is what set the odds before FY2025: how many employers registered the same person. Conditioned on that, the one rate splits in two — the full decomposition, built from these same USCIS totals.

Frequently asked questions

What was the H-1B selection rate in FY2026?

120,141 of 343,981 eligible registrations were selected for FY2026 — 34.9%. These are USCIS's own published registration statistics.

Did the 2025 rule change make the H-1B lottery fairer?

From FY2025, USCIS selects by beneficiary rather than by registration, so a person entered by ten employers has the same odds as a person entered by one. Before that, registering the same beneficiary through several employers multiplied their chances, and over half of FY2024 registrations were for multi-registered beneficiaries.

Why do the selection rates jump around so much?

The cap is fixed at 85,000 while the registration pool is not: it ran from 269,424 in FY2021 to 758,994 at its peak. A rate is selections divided by that pool, so it falls when registrations surge and rises when they fall. The $10-to-$215 registration fee and the beneficiary-centric rule both shrank the pool, and a cooler hiring market moved it too.

Does being selected mean I get an H-1B?

No. Selection only earns the right to file the I-129 petition within the filing window. The petition still has to be filed and approved, and USCIS denies a real share of them. Every rate on this page is a rate of selection, nothing more.

More on the H-1B cap

Cap season calendar · Second-round history


Sources

Registration and selection totals are USCIS's own published H-1B electronic registration statistics; the change of selection basis is the FY2025 beneficiary-centric rule. Petition receipt dates come from the I-129 microdata released under the Freedom of Information Act — sourced from USCIS, obtained by Bloomberg — covering cap-subject petitions that were selected and filed in FY2021–FY2024.

Selection figures last revised August 10, 2026. Nothing on this page is legal advice.