For each past bulletin month, see what the Bulletin Forecast Model predicted in the months before — and how close it landed once the State Department actually published. Looking for predictions for upcoming months? View the live U.S. Visa Bulletin tracker & predictions →
Across 229 months of live predictions (Jul 2006–Oct 2026), the model averaged 178.8d of error versus a naive “no-change” guess's 98.3d (falling behind the baseline), landing closer on 162 of 2879 scored dates.
EB-5 is scored from June 2022, when the bulletin began publishing a separate unreserved EB-5 row; the earlier regional-center rows are a different split, not a rename.
Accuracy varies enormously by category, country, and how far out you look — why we don't quote one “% accurate” number.
Dig into the full backtest: every prediction vs. actual (spaghetti chart) · per-series metric report.