May 2012 Visa Bulletin Employment-Based Predictions vs Actual Dates

Official May 2012 Visa Bulletin Employment-Based Final Action Dates and Dates for Filing, by preference category and country of chargeability, shown alongside our model's predictions.
Pref	Row	Other Countries		China (mainland born)		India		Mexico		Philippines
Pref	Row	FA	Filing	FA	Filing	FA	Filing	FA	Filing	FA	Filing
EB-1	pred	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EB-1	real	Current	-	Current	-	Current	-	Current	-	Current	-
EB-2	pred	-	-	01 May 2010 → 01 May 2010 0 Movement Likely	-	01 May 2010 → 01 May 2010 0 Movement Likely	-	-	-	-	-
EB-2	real	Current	-	15 Aug 2007 ↓ 33m +990d	-	15 Aug 2007 ↓ 33m +990d	-	Current	-	Current	-
EB-3	pred	08 Apr 2006 → 08 Apr 2006 0	-	01 Mar 2005 → 01 Mar 2005 0 Movement Likely	-	01 Sep 2002 → 01 Sep 2002 0 Stable	-	08 Apr 2006 → 08 Apr 2006 0	-	08 Apr 2006 → 08 Apr 2006 0	-
EB-3	real	01 May 2006 ↑ 23d -23d	-	01 Apr 2005 ↑ 1m -31d	-	08 Sep 2002 ↑ 7d -7d	-	01 May 2006 ↑ 23d -23d	-	01 May 2006 ↑ 23d -23d	-
EB-4 exp	pred	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EB-4 exp	real	Current	-	Current	-	Current	-	Current	-	Current	-
EB-5	pred	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EB-5	real	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

How our May 2012 forecast scored Typical miss ±298 days across 7 scored dates (worst 990d).

EB-2: ±990d EB-3: ±21d

Model averaged 298.1d versus the naive “no-change” guess's 298.1d — falling behind the no-change baseline; the model landed closer on 0 of 7 scored dates.

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May 2012 Visa Bulletin — Frequently Asked Questions

Did EB-2 India advance in the May 2012 Visa Bulletin?

No — the official EB-2 India Final Action Date retrogressed 33m to 15 Aug 2007 in the May 2012 Visa Bulletin.

What is the EB-1 Final Action Date for India in May 2012?

In the May 2012 Visa Bulletin, EB-1 India is Current for Final Action — all priority dates in the category are authorized. This is the official status published by the U.S. Department of State.

What is the EB-1 Final Action Date for China in May 2012?

In the May 2012 Visa Bulletin, EB-1 China is Current for Final Action — all priority dates in the category are authorized. This is the official status published by the U.S. Department of State.

What is the EB-2 Final Action Date for India in May 2012?

In the May 2012 Visa Bulletin, the official EB-2 India Final Action Date is 15 Aug 2007, a retrogression of 33m versus the prior month. Source: the U.S. Department of State Visa Bulletin.

What is the EB-2 Final Action Date for China in May 2012?

In the May 2012 Visa Bulletin, the official EB-2 China Final Action Date is 15 Aug 2007, a retrogression of 33m versus the prior month. Source: the U.S. Department of State Visa Bulletin.

What is the EB-3 Final Action Date for India in May 2012?

In the May 2012 Visa Bulletin, the official EB-3 India Final Action Date is 08 Sep 2002, an advance of 7d versus the prior month. Source: the U.S. Department of State Visa Bulletin.