The Department of State has released the December 2025 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-2 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+62d
EB-2 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+61d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | 10 Jul 2021 | +100d | +39d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Apr 2021 | +0d | -61d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 25 Apr 2021 | +24d | -37d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 06 May 2021 | +35d | -26d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Apr 2021 | +0d | -61d |
| cross_series | 0% | 03 Apr 2021 | +2d | -59d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 23 Apr 2021 | +22d | -39d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 01 Apr 2021 | +0d | -61d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 05 May 2021 | +34d | -27d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 01 Apr 2021 | +0d | -61d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 01 Apr 2021 | +0d | -61d |
EB-2 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+44d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | 19 May 2013 | +48d | +4d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Apr 2013 | +0d | -44d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 05 Apr 2013 | +4d | -40d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 01 May 2013 | +30d | -14d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Apr 2013 | +0d | -44d |
| cross_series | 0% | 01 Apr 2013 | +0d | -44d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 20 Apr 2013 | +19d | -25d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 01 Apr 2013 | +0d | -44d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 23 Apr 2013 | +22d | -22d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 01 Apr 2013 | +0d | -44d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 01 Apr 2013 | +0d | -44d |
EB-1 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+31d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | 16 Feb 2023 | +56d | +25d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Dec 2022 | -21d | -52d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 21 Jan 2023 | +30d | -1d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 03 Jan 2023 | +12d | -19d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 22 Dec 2022 | +0d | -31d |
| cross_series | 0% | 22 Dec 2022 | +0d | -31d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 04 Jan 2023 | +13d | -18d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 22 Dec 2022 | +0d | -31d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 26 Dec 2022 | +4d | -27d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 22 Dec 2022 | +0d | -31d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 22 Dec 2022 | +0d | -31d |
EB-1 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+28d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | 26 Dec 2021 | -51d | -79d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Feb 2022 | -14d | -42d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 17 Mar 2022 | +30d | +2d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 15 Feb 2022 | +0d | -28d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 15 Feb 2022 | +0d | -28d |
| cross_series | 0% | 15 Feb 2022 | +0d | -28d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 15 Feb 2022 | +0d | -28d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 15 Feb 2022 | +0d | -28d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 16 Feb 2022 | +1d | -27d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 15 Feb 2022 | +0d | -28d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 15 Feb 2022 | +0d | -28d |
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F1 Mexico advanced by 99 days to 01 Mar 2006.
- F2B Mexico advanced by 152 days to 15 May 2008.
- F2B Philippines advanced by 7 days to 08 Oct 2012.
- F3 Philippines advanced by 40 days to 01 Nov 2004.
- F4 Philippines advanced by 115 days to 15 Jul 2006.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 China advanced by 31 days to 22 Jan 2023.
- EB-1 India advanced by 28 days to 15 Mar 2022.
- EB-2 China advanced by 61 days to 01 Jun 2021.
- EB-2 India advanced by 44 days to 15 May 2013.
- EB-2 ROW advanced by 62 days to 01 Feb 2024.
- EB-3 China advanced by 31 days to 01 Apr 2021.
- EB-3 India advanced by 31 days to 22 Sep 2013.
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 14 days to 15 Apr 2023.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 6.2 | -7.7 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 3.5 | -21.0 | Slower |
| EB-2 China | 36.3 | +26.5 | Faster |
| EB-2 India | 23.9 | +41.3 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 26.9 | +20.7 | Faster |
| EB-3 China | 30.4 | +3.0 | Typical |
| EB-3 India | 26.5 | +34.0 | Faster |
| EB-3 ROW | 12.6 | -25.7 | Slower |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 22 Jan 2023
Pace: 6.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-1 India Stalled
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Mar 2022
Pace: 3.5 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 22 Jun 2021
Pace: 36.3 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 14 Jul 2013
Pace: 23.9 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Feb 2024
Pace: 26.9 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 13 May 2021
Pace: 30.4 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Oct 2013
Pace: 26.5 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Apr 2023
Pace: 12.6 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India has been stalled with minimal cutoff movement.
- EB-2 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.