The Department of State has released the October 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-1 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+109d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No-Change Baseline | 100.0% | 15 Oct 2022 | +0d | -109d |
| gbm | 0% | 14 Dec 2022 | +60d | -49d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Oct 2022 | -14d | -123d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 15 Oct 2022 | +0d | -109d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 25 Sep 2022 | -20d | -129d |
| cross_series | 0% | 15 Oct 2022 | +0d | -109d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 14 Dec 2022 | +60d | -49d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 15 Oct 2022 | +0d | -109d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 06 Nov 2022 | +22d | -87d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 15 Oct 2022 | +0d | -109d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 15 Oct 2022 | +0d | -109d |
EB-3 ROW (Final Action) Overestimated advance
+0d
-109d
EB-3 India (Final Action) Overestimated advance
+92d
+0d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 03 Apr 2014 | +92d | +92d |
| gbm | 0% | 22 Feb 2014 | +52d | +52d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | +0d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | +0d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 06 Jan 2014 | +5d | +5d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | +0d |
| cross_series | 0% | 11 Mar 2014 | +69d | +69d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 19 Jan 2014 | +18d | +18d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 13 Jan 2014 | +12d | +12d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 03 Apr 2014 | +92d | +92d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 03 Apr 2014 | +92d | +92d |
EB-3 China (Final Action) Overestimated advance
+62d
+7d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 04 Mar 2022 | +62d | +55d |
| gbm | 0% | 16 Jan 2022 | +15d | +8d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Jan 2022 | +0d | -7d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 01 Jan 2022 | +0d | -7d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 21 Feb 2022 | +51d | +44d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Jan 2022 | +0d | -7d |
| cross_series | 0% | 20 Mar 2022 | +78d | +71d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 28 Jan 2022 | +27d | +20d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 28 Jan 2022 | +27d | +20d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 01 Apr 2022 | +90d | +83d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 01 Apr 2022 | +90d | +83d |
EB-2 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+11d
+30d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | 26 Oct 2021 | +55d | +25d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Sep 2021 | +0d | -30d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 01 Sep 2021 | +0d | -30d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 01 Sep 2021 | +0d | -30d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Sep 2021 | +0d | -30d |
| cross_series | 0% | 14 Nov 2021 | +74d | +44d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 23 Sep 2021 | +22d | -8d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 29 Oct 2021 | +58d | +28d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 14 Sep 2021 | +13d | -17d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 25 Nov 2021 | +85d | +55d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 25 Nov 2021 | +85d | +55d |
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F1 Mexico advanced by 251 days to 08 Sep 2008.
- F1 Philippines advanced by 184 days to 01 Nov 2013.
- F2A (All Areas) advanced by 31 days to 22 Sep 2026.
- F2A Mexico advanced by 212 days to 22 Mar 2026.
- F2B Mexico advanced by 454 days to 15 May 2010.
- F2B Philippines advanced by 122 days to 01 Oct 2013.
- F3 Philippines advanced by 150 days to 22 Jul 2006.
- F4 Mexico advanced by 14 days to 22 Apr 2001.
- F4 Philippines advanced by 267 days to 15 May 2008.
- F4 India advanced by 44 days to 15 Dec 2006.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 India advanced by 109 days to 01 Feb 2023.
- EB-2 China advanced by 30 days to 01 Oct 2021.
- EB-2 India reopened at 01 Nov 2013 (was Unavailable).
- EB-2 ROW set a cutoff of 01 Jan 2025 (was Current).
- EB-3 China advanced by 7 days to 08 Jan 2022.
- EB-3 ROW retrogressed by 109 days to 15 May 2024.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 15.9 | -19.0 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 29.2 | +5.7 | Typical |
| EB-2 China | 15.2 | -22.7 | Slower |
| EB-2 India | 25.3 | -96.5 | Slower |
| EB-2 ROW | 33.1 | -212.7 | Slower |
| EB-3 China | 26.1 | -20.3 | Slower |
| EB-3 India | 11.0 | -17.3 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 34.2 | -55.3 | Slower |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jul 2023
Pace: 15.9 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Jul 2023
EB-1 India Recovering
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Feb 2023
Pace: 29.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% No-Change Baseline → 01 Feb 2023
EB-2 China Stalled
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Oct 2021
Pace: 15.2 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% No-Change Baseline → 01 Oct 2021
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Nov 2013
Pace: 25.3 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Nov 2013
EB-2 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2025
Pace: 33.1 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 08 Jan 2022
Pace: 26.1 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 08 Jan 2022
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2014
Pace: 11.0 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Jan 2014
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 15 May 2024
Pace: 34.2 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is recovering from a recent retrogression period.
- EB-2 China has been stalled with minimal cutoff movement.
- EB-2 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.