The Department of State has released the August 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-3 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+31d
EB-1 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+30d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 01 Jun 2023 | +0d | -30d |
| gbm | 0% | 03 Jun 2023 | +2d | -28d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Jun 2023 | +0d | -30d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 01 Jun 2023 | +0d | -30d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 21 Jun 2023 | +20d | -10d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Jun 2023 | +0d | -30d |
| cross_series | 0% | 01 Jun 2023 | +0d | -30d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 07 Jun 2023 | +6d | -24d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 19 Jun 2023 | +18d | -12d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 01 Jun 2023 | +0d | -30d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 01 Jun 2023 | +0d | -30d |
EB-3 India (Final Action) Overestimated advance
+30d
+0d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 31 Jan 2014 | +30d | +30d |
| gbm | 0% | 26 Jan 2014 | +25d | +25d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | +0d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 31 Jan 2014 | +30d | +30d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 16 Jan 2014 | +15d | +15d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | +0d |
| cross_series | 0% | 13 Jan 2014 | +12d | +12d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 14 Jan 2014 | +13d | +13d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 21 Jan 2014 | +20d | +20d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 31 Jan 2014 | +30d | +30d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 31 Jan 2014 | +30d | +30d |
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F1 (All Areas) advanced by 317 days to 15 Dec 2018.
- F1 Mexico advanced by 23 days to 01 Dec 2007.
- F2A (All Areas) advanced by 567 days to 22 Jul 2026.
- F2A Mexico advanced by 568 days to 22 Jul 2025.
- F2B (All Areas) advanced by 40 days to 01 Jan 2018.
- F2B Philippines advanced by 17 days to 01 Jun 2013.
- F3 (All Areas) advanced by 30 days to 15 May 2012.
- F3 Mexico advanced by 30 days to 01 Jul 2001.
- F4 (All Areas) advanced by 243 days to 01 Sep 2009.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 China advanced by 30 days to 01 Jul 2023.
- EB-3 China advanced by 10 days to 01 Jan 2022.
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 31 days to 01 Sep 2024.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 19.0 | -0.3 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 20.2 | -86.7 | Slower |
| EB-2 China | 21.7 | -42.0 | Slower |
| EB-2 India | 20.2 | -13.8 | Typical |
| EB-2 ROW | 88.8 | 0.0 | Typical |
| EB-3 China | 33.0 | +42.8 | Faster |
| EB-3 India | 18.7 | -2.7 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 43.2 | 0.0 | Typical |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jul 2023
Pace: 19.0 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Jul 2023
EB-1 India Retrogressing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Oct 2022
Pace: 20.2 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% No-Change Baseline → 15 Oct 2022
EB-2 China Stalled
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Sep 2021
Pace: 21.7 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% No-Change Baseline → 01 Sep 2021
EB-2 India Unavailable
No cutoff — category is Unavailable until the October fiscal-year reset.
Pace: 20.2 d/mo avg
EB-2 ROW
Pace: 88.8 d/mo avg
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 33.0 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Jan 2022
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2014
Pace: 18.7 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Jan 2014
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Sep 2024
Pace: 43.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is retrogressing — cutoff dates are moving backward.
- EB-2 China has been stalled with minimal cutoff movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.