The Department of State has released the November 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-2 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+90d
EB-1 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+31d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 01 Jul 2023 | +0d | -31d |
| gbm | 0% | 23 Jul 2023 | +22d | -9d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Jul 2023 | +0d | -31d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 01 Aug 2023 | +31d | +0d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 11 Jul 2023 | +10d | -21d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Jul 2023 | +0d | -31d |
| cross_series | 0% | 01 Jul 2023 | +0d | -31d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 11 Jul 2023 | +10d | -21d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 18 Jul 2023 | +17d | -14d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 01 Jul 2023 | +0d | -31d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 01 Jul 2023 | +0d | -31d |
EB-3 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+31d
EB-3 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+21d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | -21d |
| gbm | 0% | 22 Jan 2014 | +21d | +0d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | -21d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | -21d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | -21d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | -21d |
| cross_series | 0% | 08 Jan 2014 | +7d | -14d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 19 Jan 2014 | +18d | -3d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 13 Jan 2014 | +12d | -9d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | -21d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 01 Jan 2014 | +0d | -21d |
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F1 (All Areas) advanced by 366 days to 22 Jan 2021.
- F1 Mexico advanced by 14 days to 22 Sep 2008.
- F2A (All Areas) advanced by 30 days to 22 Oct 2026.
- F2A Mexico advanced by 31 days to 22 Apr 2026.
- F2B (All Areas) advanced by 366 days to 22 Aug 2020.
- F3 (All Areas) advanced by 365 days to 22 Oct 2015.
- F3 Mexico advanced by 14 days to 15 Jul 2001.
- F4 (All Areas) advanced by 366 days to 22 Oct 2012.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 China advanced by 31 days to 01 Aug 2023.
- EB-2 ROW advanced by 90 days to 01 Apr 2025.
- EB-3 China advanced by 14 days to 22 Jan 2022.
- EB-3 India advanced by 21 days to 22 Jan 2014.
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 31 days to 15 Jun 2024.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 18.5 | -18.7 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 29.2 | +5.7 | Typical |
| EB-2 China | 15.2 | -10.3 | Typical |
| EB-2 India | 25.3 | -96.5 | Slower |
| EB-2 ROW | 40.6 | -193.0 | Slower |
| EB-3 China | 27.2 | -16.8 | Typical |
| EB-3 India | 12.8 | -1.2 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 36.8 | -55.3 | Slower |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Aug 2023
Pace: 18.5 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Aug 2023
EB-1 India Recovering
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Feb 2023
Pace: 29.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% No-Change Baseline → 01 Feb 2023
EB-2 China Stalled
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Oct 2021
Pace: 15.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% No-Change Baseline → 01 Oct 2021
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 18 Nov 2013
Pace: 25.3 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 18 Nov 2013
EB-2 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2025
Pace: 40.6 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 05 Feb 2022
Pace: 27.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 05 Feb 2022
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 29 Jan 2014
Pace: 12.8 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 29 Jan 2014
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jun 2024
Pace: 36.8 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is recovering from a recent retrogression period.
- EB-2 China has been stalled with minimal cutoff movement.
- EB-2 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.