The Department of State has released the September 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
Our model's predictions were largely in line with this month's bulletin, with no major deviations (>14 days).
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F1 (All Areas) advanced by 403 days to 22 Jan 2020.
- F1 Mexico advanced by 31 days to 01 Jan 2008.
- F2A (All Areas) advanced by 31 days to 22 Aug 2026.
- F2A Mexico advanced by 31 days to 22 Aug 2025.
- F2B (All Areas) advanced by 598 days to 22 Aug 2019.
- F3 (All Areas) advanced by 890 days to 22 Oct 2014.
- F4 (All Areas) advanced by 781 days to 22 Oct 2011.
- F4 Philippines advanced by 21 days to 22 Aug 2007.
Employment-Based
No significant movement observed in Employment-Based categories.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 19.0 | +1.3 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 20.2 | -51.0 | Slower |
| EB-2 China | 21.7 | -29.7 | Slower |
| EB-2 India | 20.2 | -13.8 | Typical |
| EB-2 ROW | 91.3 | 0.0 | Typical |
| EB-3 China | 33.0 | +34.0 | Faster |
| EB-3 India | 18.7 | -12.7 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 43.2 | +1.3 | Typical |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 10 Jul 2023
Pace: 19.0 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 10 Jul 2023
EB-1 India Retrogressing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Oct 2022
Pace: 20.2 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% No-Change Baseline → 15 Oct 2022
EB-2 China Stalled
Next predicted cutoff: 12 Sep 2021
Pace: 21.7 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 India Unavailable
No cutoff — category is Unavailable until the October fiscal-year reset.
Pace: 20.2 d/mo avg
EB-2 ROW
Pace: 91.3 d/mo avg
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 04 Mar 2022
Pace: 33.0 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 04 Mar 2022
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 03 Apr 2014
Pace: 18.7 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 03 Apr 2014
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Sep 2024
Pace: 43.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is retrogressing — cutoff dates are moving backward.
- EB-2 China has been stalled with minimal cutoff movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.