The Department of State has released the February 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-3 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+40d
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F1 Mexico advanced by 112 days to 22 Dec 2006.
- F2B Mexico advanced by 92 days to 15 Feb 2009.
Employment-Based
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 40 days to 01 Jun 2023.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 7.1 | -17.0 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 30.4 | +86.3 | Faster |
| EB-2 China | 41.4 | +24.5 | Faster |
| EB-2 India | 22.8 | +30.5 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 30.5 | +10.0 | Typical |
| EB-3 China | 25.3 | -9.7 | Typical |
| EB-3 India | 27.9 | +21.3 | Faster |
| EB-3 ROW | 15.2 | -10.3 | Typical |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Feb 2023
Pace: 7.1 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-1 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Feb 2023
Pace: 30.4 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Sep 2021
Pace: 41.4 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jul 2013
Pace: 22.8 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2024
Pace: 30.5 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 May 2021
Pace: 25.3 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Nov 2013
Pace: 27.9 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jun 2023
Pace: 15.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India shows volatile behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.