The Department of State has released the January 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-1 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+323d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | 21 Jul 2022 | +128d | -195d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Mar 2022 | -14d | -337d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 15 Apr 2022 | +31d | -292d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 24 Mar 2022 | +9d | -314d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 15 Mar 2022 | +0d | -323d |
| cross_series | 0% | 15 Mar 2022 | +0d | -323d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 16 Mar 2022 | +1d | -322d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 15 Mar 2022 | +0d | -323d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 18 Mar 2022 | +3d | -320d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 15 Mar 2022 | +0d | -323d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 15 Mar 2022 | +0d | -323d |
EB-2 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+21d
+92d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | 19 Jul 2021 | +48d | -44d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Jun 2021 | +0d | -92d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 24 Jun 2021 | +23d | -69d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 27 Jul 2021 | +56d | -36d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Jun 2021 | +0d | -92d |
| cross_series | 0% | 30 Jun 2021 | +29d | -63d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 23 Jun 2021 | +22d | -70d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 22 Jun 2021 | +21d | -71d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 07 Jul 2021 | +36d | -56d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 02 Jul 2021 | +31d | -61d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 02 Jul 2021 | +31d | -61d |
EB-2 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+60d
EB-3 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+23d
+54d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | 20 Sep 2013 | -2d | -56d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Sep 2013 | -21d | -75d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 29 Sep 2013 | +7d | -47d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 02 Nov 2013 | +41d | -13d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 22 Sep 2013 | +0d | -54d |
| cross_series | 0% | 12 Oct 2013 | +20d | -34d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 12 Oct 2013 | +20d | -34d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 15 Oct 2013 | +23d | -31d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 18 Oct 2013 | +26d | -28d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 15 Oct 2013 | +23d | -31d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 15 Oct 2013 | +23d | -31d |
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F1 Mexico advanced by 184 days to 01 Sep 2006.
- F1 Philippines advanced by 38 days to 01 Mar 2013.
- F2B Mexico advanced by 184 days to 15 Nov 2008.
- F2B Philippines advanced by 75 days to 22 Dec 2012.
- F3 Philippines advanced by 120 days to 01 Mar 2005.
- F4 Philippines advanced by 7 days to 22 Jul 2006.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 China advanced by 10 days to 01 Feb 2023.
- EB-1 India advanced by 323 days to 01 Feb 2023.
- EB-2 China advanced by 92 days to 01 Sep 2021.
- EB-2 India advanced by 61 days to 15 Jul 2013.
- EB-2 ROW advanced by 60 days to 01 Apr 2024.
- EB-3 China advanced by 30 days to 01 May 2021.
- EB-3 India advanced by 54 days to 15 Nov 2013.
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 7 days to 22 Apr 2023.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 7.1 | -17.0 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 30.4 | +86.3 | Faster |
| EB-2 China | 41.4 | +23.8 | Faster |
| EB-2 India | 23.9 | +30.7 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 30.5 | +10.0 | Typical |
| EB-3 China | 27.8 | -6.7 | Typical |
| EB-3 India | 29.1 | +23.7 | Faster |
| EB-3 ROW | 11.8 | -23.7 | Slower |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Feb 2023
Pace: 7.1 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-1 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Feb 2023
Pace: 30.4 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Sep 2021
Pace: 41.4 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jul 2013
Pace: 23.9 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2024
Pace: 30.5 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 May 2021
Pace: 27.8 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 29 Nov 2013
Pace: 29.1 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 22 Apr 2023
Pace: 11.8 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India shows volatile behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.