The Department of State has released the May 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
Our model's predictions were largely in line with this month's bulletin, with no major deviations (>14 days).
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F1 (All Areas) advanced by 123 days to 01 Sep 2017.
- F1 Mexico advanced by 181 days to 15 Aug 2007.
- F2A (All Areas) advanced by 182 days to 01 Aug 2024.
- F2A Mexico advanced by 181 days to 01 Aug 2023.
- F3 (All Areas) advanced by 55 days to 15 Feb 2012.
- F3 Philippines advanced by 144 days to 22 Nov 2005.
- F4 (All Areas) advanced by 99 days to 15 Sep 2008.
- F4 Philippines advanced by 164 days to 15 Jul 2007.
Employment-Based
No significant movement observed in Employment-Based categories.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 12.0 | -10.0 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 34.2 | -10.0 | Typical |
| EB-2 China | 27.9 | -26.7 | Slower |
| EB-2 India | 46.7 | +118.3 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 87.0 | +223.7 | Faster |
| EB-3 China | 18.8 | -21.0 | Slower |
| EB-3 India | 17.8 | -11.7 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 43.1 | +92.7 | Faster |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2023
Pace: 12.0 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Apr 2023
EB-1 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2023
Pace: 34.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Apr 2023
EB-2 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Sep 2021
Pace: 27.9 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Sep 2021
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jul 2014
Pace: 46.7 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 15 Jul 2014
EB-2 ROW
Pace: 87.0 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jun 2021
Pace: 18.8 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 15 Jun 2021
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Nov 2013
Pace: 17.8 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 15 Nov 2013
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jun 2024
Pace: 43.1 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.