The Department of State has released the November 2025 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
Our model's predictions were largely in line with this month's bulletin, with no major deviations (>14 days).
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F2B (All Areas) advanced by 9 days to 01 Dec 2016.
- F3 Mexico advanced by 16 days to 01 May 2001.
Employment-Based
No significant movement observed in Employment-Based categories.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 3.7 | -16.7 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 1.2 | -30.7 | Slower |
| EB-2 China | 31.2 | +15.3 | Typical |
| EB-2 India | 21.7 | +26.7 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 21.8 | -0.3 | Typical |
| EB-3 China | 27.8 | +1.3 | Typical |
| EB-3 India | 24.5 | +26.0 | Faster |
| EB-3 ROW | 11.4 | -27.7 | Slower |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 22 Dec 2022
Pace: 3.7 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-1 India Stalled
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Feb 2022
Pace: 1.2 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2021
Pace: 31.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2013
Pace: 21.7 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Dec 2023
Pace: 21.8 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Mar 2021
Pace: 27.8 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 29 Aug 2013
Pace: 24.5 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2023
Pace: 11.4 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India has been stalled with minimal cutoff movement.
- EB-2 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 India shows volatile behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.