The Department of State has released the April 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-2 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+533d
EB-2 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+31d
+303d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Sep 2013 | -14d | -317d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 16 Oct 2013 | +31d | -272d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 26 Oct 2013 | +41d | -262d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 15 Sep 2013 | +0d | -303d |
| cross_series | 0% | 02 Nov 2013 | +48d | -255d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 07 Oct 2013 | +22d | -281d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 16 Oct 2013 | +31d | -272d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 08 Oct 2013 | +23d | -280d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 16 Oct 2013 | +31d | -272d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 16 Oct 2013 | +31d | -272d |
EB-3 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+244d
EB-3 India (Final Action) Overestimated advance
+45d
+0d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Nov 2013 | -14d | -14d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 30 Dec 2013 | +45d | +45d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 03 Dec 2013 | +18d | +18d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 15 Nov 2013 | +0d | +0d |
| cross_series | 0% | 13 Jan 2014 | +59d | +59d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 04 Dec 2013 | +19d | +19d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 30 Dec 2013 | +45d | +45d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 05 Dec 2013 | +20d | +20d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 30 Dec 2013 | +45d | +45d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 30 Dec 2013 | +45d | +45d |
EB-1 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+31d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Mar 2023 | +0d | -31d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 01 Mar 2023 | +0d | -31d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 13 Mar 2023 | +12d | -19d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Mar 2023 | +0d | -31d |
| cross_series | 0% | 01 Mar 2023 | +0d | -31d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 08 Mar 2023 | +7d | -24d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 01 Mar 2023 | +0d | -31d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 11 Mar 2023 | +10d | -21d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 01 Mar 2023 | +0d | -31d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 01 Mar 2023 | +0d | -31d |
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F1 (All Areas) advanced by 174 days to 01 May 2017.
- F1 Mexico advanced by 55 days to 15 Feb 2007.
- F1 Philippines advanced by 61 days to 01 May 2013.
- F2B (All Areas) advanced by 172 days to 22 May 2017.
- F2B Philippines advanced by 107 days to 08 Apr 2013.
- F3 (All Areas) advanced by 105 days to 22 Dec 2011.
- F3 Philippines advanced by 122 days to 01 Jul 2005.
- F4 (All Areas) advanced by 152 days to 08 Jun 2008.
- F4 Philippines advanced by 153 days to 01 Feb 2007.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 China advanced by 31 days to 01 Apr 2023.
- EB-1 India advanced by 31 days to 01 Apr 2023.
- EB-2 India advanced by 303 days to 15 Jul 2014.
- EB-2 ROW became Current.
- EB-3 China advanced by 45 days to 15 Jun 2021.
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 244 days to 01 Jun 2024.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 12.0 | -10.3 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 34.2 | -10.3 | Typical |
| EB-2 China | 27.9 | -25.7 | Slower |
| EB-2 India | 46.7 | +118.2 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 84.5 | +213.3 | Faster |
| EB-3 China | 18.8 | -18.5 | Typical |
| EB-3 India | 19.0 | -10.2 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 43.1 | +105.3 | Faster |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2023
Pace: 12.0 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-1 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2023
Pace: 34.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Sep 2021
Pace: 27.9 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jul 2014
Pace: 46.7 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 ROW Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Apr 2026
Pace: 84.5 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jun 2021
Pace: 18.8 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Nov 2013
Pace: 19.0 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 ROW Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jun 2024
Pace: 43.1 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 ROW is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 ROW is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.