The Department of State has released the July 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-3 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+143d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 01 Aug 2021 | +0d | -143d |
| gbm | 0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Aug 2021 | +0d | -143d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 01 Aug 2021 | +0d | -143d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 31 Aug 2021 | +30d | -113d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Aug 2021 | +0d | -143d |
| cross_series | 0% | 03 Aug 2021 | +2d | -141d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 12 Aug 2021 | +11d | -132d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 23 Aug 2021 | +22d | -121d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 01 Aug 2021 | +0d | -143d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 01 Aug 2021 | +0d | -143d |
EB-1 India (Final Action) Overestimated advance
+0d
-61d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 15 Dec 2022 | +0d | +61d |
| gbm | 0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Dec 2022 | -14d | +47d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 15 Dec 2022 | +0d | +61d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 20 Nov 2022 | -25d | +36d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 15 Dec 2022 | +0d | +61d |
| cross_series | 0% | 15 Dec 2022 | +0d | +61d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 21 Dec 2022 | +6d | +67d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 11 Jan 2023 | +27d | +88d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 15 Dec 2022 | +0d | +61d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 15 Dec 2022 | +0d | +61d |
EB-3 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+61d
EB-1 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+4d
+61d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 05 Apr 2023 | +4d | -57d |
| gbm | 0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Apr 2023 | +0d | -61d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 08 Apr 2023 | +7d | -54d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 11 Apr 2023 | +10d | -51d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Apr 2023 | +0d | -61d |
| cross_series | 0% | 08 Apr 2023 | +7d | -54d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 06 Apr 2023 | +5d | -56d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 13 Apr 2023 | +12d | -49d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 08 Apr 2023 | +7d | -54d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 08 Apr 2023 | +7d | -54d |
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F1 (All Areas) advanced by 153 days to 01 Feb 2018.
- F2B (All Areas) advanced by 61 days to 22 Nov 2017.
- F2B Philippines advanced by 37 days to 15 May 2013.
- F3 (All Areas) advanced by 60 days to 15 Apr 2012.
- F3 Mexico advanced by 31 days to 01 Jun 2001.
- F3 Philippines advanced by 92 days to 22 Feb 2006.
- F4 (All Areas) advanced by 54 days to 01 Jan 2009.
- F4 Philippines advanced by 17 days to 01 Aug 2007.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 China advanced by 61 days to 01 Jun 2023.
- EB-1 India retrogressed by 61 days to 15 Oct 2022.
- EB-2 India became Unavailable (was 01 Sep 2013).
- EB-3 China advanced by 143 days to 22 Dec 2021.
- EB-3 India advanced by 17 days to 01 Jan 2014.
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 61 days to 01 Aug 2024.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 16.5 | -10.0 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 20.2 | -86.3 | Slower |
| EB-2 China | 21.7 | -29.0 | Slower |
| EB-2 India | 20.2 | -7.3 | Typical |
| EB-2 ROW | 82.5 | 0.0 | Typical |
| EB-3 China | 32.2 | +30.7 | Faster |
| EB-3 India | 21.2 | +3.8 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 40.7 | -12.0 | Typical |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jun 2023
Pace: 16.5 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Jun 2023
EB-1 India Retrogressing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Oct 2022
Pace: 20.2 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Top Factors
- 100.0% No-Change Baseline → 15 Oct 2022
EB-2 China Stalled
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Sep 2021
Pace: 21.7 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% No-Change Baseline → 01 Sep 2021
EB-2 India Unavailable
No cutoff — category is Unavailable until the October fiscal-year reset.
Pace: 20.2 d/mo avg
EB-2 ROW
Pace: 82.5 d/mo avg
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 22 Dec 2021
Pace: 32.2 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 22 Dec 2021
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 31 Jan 2014
Pace: 21.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 31 Jan 2014
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Aug 2024
Pace: 40.7 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is retrogressing — cutoff dates are moving backward.
- EB-2 China has been stalled with minimal cutoff movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.