The Department of State has released the June 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-2 India (Final Action) Overestimated advance
+0d
-317d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 15 Jul 2014 | +0d | +317d |
| gbm | 0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Jul 2014 | -14d | +303d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 15 Jul 2014 | +0d | +317d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 13 Nov 2014 | +121d | +438d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 15 Jul 2014 | +0d | +317d |
| cross_series | 0% | 18 Jul 2014 | +3d | +320d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 19 Aug 2014 | +35d | +352d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 03 Sep 2014 | +50d | +367d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 15 Jul 2014 | +0d | +317d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 15 Jul 2014 | +0d | +317d |
EB-1 India (Final Action) Overestimated advance
+0d
-107d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 01 Apr 2023 | +0d | +107d |
| gbm | 0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Apr 2023 | +0d | +107d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 01 Apr 2023 | +0d | +107d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 20 Apr 2023 | +19d | +126d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Apr 2023 | +0d | +107d |
| cross_series | 0% | 01 Apr 2023 | +0d | +107d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 12 Apr 2023 | +11d | +118d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 08 May 2023 | +37d | +144d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 01 Apr 2023 | +0d | +107d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 01 Apr 2023 | +0d | +107d |
EB-3 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+47d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 15 Jun 2021 | +0d | -47d |
| gbm | 0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Jun 2021 | -14d | -61d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 15 Jun 2021 | +0d | -47d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 30 Jun 2021 | +15d | -32d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 15 Jun 2021 | +0d | -47d |
| cross_series | 0% | 18 Jun 2021 | +3d | -44d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 27 Jun 2021 | +12d | -35d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 03 Jul 2021 | +18d | -29d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 15 Jun 2021 | +0d | -47d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 15 Jun 2021 | +0d | -47d |
EB-3 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+30d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand Signal | 100.0% | 15 Nov 2013 | +0d | -30d |
| gbm | 0% | -- | -- | -- |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Nov 2013 | -14d | -44d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 15 Nov 2013 | +0d | -30d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 15 Nov 2013 | +0d | -30d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 15 Nov 2013 | +0d | -30d |
| cross_series | 0% | 18 Nov 2013 | +3d | -27d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 04 Dec 2013 | +19d | -11d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 04 Dec 2013 | +19d | -11d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 15 Nov 2013 | +0d | -30d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 15 Nov 2013 | +0d | -30d |
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F1 Mexico advanced by 85 days to 08 Nov 2007.
- F2A (All Areas) advanced by 153 days to 01 Jan 2025.
- F2A Mexico advanced by 153 days to 01 Jan 2024.
- F2B (All Areas) advanced by 123 days to 22 Sep 2017.
- F4 (All Areas) advanced by 54 days to 08 Nov 2008.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 India retrogressed by 107 days to 15 Dec 2022.
- EB-2 India retrogressed by 317 days to 01 Sep 2013.
- EB-3 China advanced by 47 days to 01 Aug 2021.
- EB-3 India advanced by 30 days to 15 Dec 2013.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 12.0 | -20.3 | Slower |
| EB-1 India | 25.2 | -56.0 | Slower |
| EB-2 China | 22.8 | -28.0 | Slower |
| EB-2 India | 20.2 | -7.3 | Typical |
| EB-2 ROW | 80.0 | +167.3 | Faster |
| EB-3 China | 21.0 | -2.5 | Typical |
| EB-3 India | 20.3 | -1.7 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 39.9 | +51.0 | Faster |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 05 Apr 2023
Pace: 12.0 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 05 Apr 2023
EB-1 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Dec 2022
Pace: 25.2 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 15 Dec 2022
EB-2 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Sep 2021
Pace: 22.8 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% No-Change Baseline → 01 Sep 2021
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Sep 2013
Pace: 20.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Sep 2013
EB-2 ROW
Pace: 80.0 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Aug 2021
Pace: 21.0 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 01 Aug 2021
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 22 Dec 2013
Pace: 20.3 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 100.0% Demand Signal → 22 Dec 2013
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jun 2024
Pace: 39.9 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 China shows volatile behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.