The Department of State has released the March 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
EB-2 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+197d
EB-3 ROW (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+122d
EB-2 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+62d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | 13 Jul 2013 | -2d | -64d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Jul 2013 | -14d | -76d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 15 Jul 2013 | +0d | -62d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 19 Aug 2013 | +35d | -27d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 15 Jul 2013 | +0d | -62d |
| cross_series | 0% | 07 Aug 2013 | +23d | -39d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 05 Aug 2013 | +21d | -41d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 15 Jul 2013 | +0d | -62d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 04 Aug 2013 | +20d | -42d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 15 Jul 2013 | +0d | -62d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 15 Jul 2013 | +0d | -62d |
EB-1 China (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+28d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | 08 May 2023 | +96d | +68d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 14 Feb 2023 | +13d | -15d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| cross_series | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 09 Feb 2023 | +8d | -20d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 08 Feb 2023 | +7d | -21d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
EB-1 India (Final Action) Underestimated advance
+0d
+28d
Model Breakdown
| Expert | Weight | Predicted | vs Baseline | vs Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gbm | 0% | 25 Jul 2023 | +174d | +146d |
| Queue Simulation | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| Fiscal Year Cycle | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| 3-Month Momentum | 0% | 29 May 2023 | +117d | +89d |
| No-Change Baseline | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| cross_series | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| Supply-Adjusted | 0% | 11 Feb 2023 | +10d | -18d |
| Demand Signal | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| 12-Month Trend | 0% | 06 Mar 2023 | +33d | +5d |
| Seasonal Pattern | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
| i485_queue_depth | 0% | 01 Feb 2023 | +0d | -28d |
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
- F4 Philippines advanced by 41 days to 01 Sep 2006.
Employment-Based
- EB-1 China advanced by 28 days to 01 Mar 2023.
- EB-1 India advanced by 28 days to 01 Mar 2023.
- EB-2 India advanced by 62 days to 15 Sep 2013.
- EB-2 ROW advanced by 197 days to 15 Oct 2024.
- EB-3 ROW advanced by 122 days to 01 Oct 2023.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 9.4 | -17.3 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 32.8 | +87.0 | Faster |
| EB-2 China | 40.1 | +3.3 | Typical |
| EB-2 India | 24.0 | +36.8 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 43.2 | +55.7 | Faster |
| EB-3 China | 22.8 | -21.7 | Slower |
| EB-3 India | 23.9 | +11.0 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 25.3 | +26.3 | Faster |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Mar 2023
Pace: 9.4 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-1 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Mar 2023
Pace: 32.8 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 22 Sep 2021
Pace: 40.1 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 16 Oct 2013
Pace: 24.0 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-2 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Oct 2024
Pace: 43.2 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
EB-3 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 03 Jul 2021
Pace: 22.8 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 30 Dec 2013
Pace: 23.9 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
EB-3 ROW
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Oct 2023
Pace: 25.3 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Moderate
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 India is in an advancing pattern with consistent forward movement.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.